📊 RDU Sales Funnel — Statistical Confidence Analysis

466 leads · 172 bookings · 31 closes · $64,611 cash collected · All CIs at 95% confidence (Wilson score)

Overview & Funnel
By Role
By Goal
By Income
Key Qualifiers
Confidence Table
Action Items
Total Leads
466
Answers received
Booked
172
36.9% book rate [32.7%–41.4%]
Showed
95
55.2% show rate
Offered
60
63.2% offer rate
Closed
31
18.0% close rate [13.0%–24.4%]
Cash Collected
$64K
$376 avg/booking
Sales Funnel

Funnel Stage Conversion Rates

Cash/Booking vs Close Rate — All Segments

Data Quality — Are We There Yet?
How to read the progress bars below: Each bar shows how close we are to having enough bookings for a ±5% margin of error at 95% confidence. Green = reliable. Yellow = directional. Red = interesting signal but don't bet on it yet.
The error bars on each chart represent the 95% confidence interval — the range where the true close rate almost certainly falls. Wide bars = small sample. Narrow bars = you can trust the number.

Close Rate by Role (with 95% CI error bars)

Cash/Booking by Role

Role Segment Detail
"Build course/coaching" is the highest-value goal segment by far ($1,350/booking = 3.6× baseline) but only 28 bookings — confidence interval spans 24%–58%. The pattern is real but needs more data before you optimize hard toward it.

Close Rate by Goal (with 95% CI)

Cash/Booking by Goal vs Baseline ($376)

Total Cash Collected by Goal

Goal Segment Detail
$200k+ income generates $1,148/booking (3× baseline) — but every income segment is currently INSUFFICIENT DATA for reliable close rates. The income signal is directionally strong but CIs are all ±13–42%. You need ~50+ bookings per bracket to be confident.

Close Rate by Income (with 95% CI)

Cash/Booking by Income vs Baseline ($376)

Income Segment Detail

✅ US Citizen — The Hardest Qualifier

$0 from non-US

23 non-US bookings → 0 closes → $0 cash. All $64,611 came from US citizens. With 95% confidence, non-US true close rate is below 14.3%. This is a decisive disqualifier.

🟣 Readiness — Best Leading Indicator

30.4% vs 6.8%

"Ready now if right fit" closes at 30.4% ($538/booking) vs "Ready in 30 days" at 6.8% ($21/booking). Problem: only 214 of 466 answered this question. Fix the form.

⚠️ Calendar Source Matters

Strategy (TRG): 3.7%

Strategy Session calls close at 20.7% ($443/booking). Strategy Session TRG closes at 3.7% ($15/booking). 27 TRG bookings — medium confidence on this difference but the gap is striking.

🔴 Segments to Deprioritize

$0–$19/booking

Scale freelance ($131/bkd), Unemployed ($19/bkd), Non-US ($0/bkd), Eng Manager ($0/bkd). These segments are consuming sales time with near-zero commercial return.

US Citizen — Close Rate & Cash Impact

Readiness vs Close Rate

Calendar Source Comparison

Confidence levels explained: ✅ HIGH = sample is 80%+ of what's needed for ±5% MoE | ⚠️ MEDIUM = 40–80% of needed sample — directional, use with caution | 🔶 LOW = 20–40% — interesting signal only | ⛔ INSUFFICIENT = less than 20% of needed sample — don't make decisions from this
All Segments — Ranked by Bookings
Sample Size Requirements

Bookings needed for ±5% MoE at 95% CI (by expected close rate)

What You Can Act On NOW (High Confidence)

1. Hard Qualify on US Citizenship

23 non-US bookings, $0 cash. This is statistically decisive. Add a pre-qualifier that removes non-US leads before they book a call. Estimated impact: reduces wasted call time, no revenue loss.

2. Focus Setter Effort on Senior/Staff Roles

Senior Dev + Staff/Principal = most reliable conversion + $429–$594/booking. Mid-level converts at nearly half the rate. The ideal avatar is already paying senior-level money.

3. Fix the Readiness Question Dropout

Only 54% of leads answer the readiness question. "Ready now if right fit" shows 4.5× better close rate and 25× better cash/booking vs "Ready in 30 days." This is your best pre-call lead scorer.

Watch Closely — Strong Signal, Needs Confirmation

4. "Build Course/Coaching" Goal = Highest Value

$1,350/booking = 3.6× baseline. 39.3% close rate. But n=28 — need ~50 more bookings to confirm. Don't restructure messaging around this yet, but watch it closely. If it holds at 30+ close rate with 60+ bookings, it changes your ICP.

5. $200k+ Income = 3× Cash

$1,148/booking vs $376 baseline. Medium confidence (n=41). The pattern is real but CI is ±14%. Consider a soft qualifier or separate funnel track for this bracket once you hit 60 bookings.

6. Director/VP/CTO — Watch Carefully

50% close rate. Sounds amazing. But n=8 — true rate could be 19%–81%. Need 20+ bookings minimum before drawing conclusions. Don't add messaging targeting this segment yet.

Deprioritize — Data is Clear

7. Stop Spending Time on These Segments

Non-US Citizen: $0 from 23 bookings. Hard no.
Scale freelance goal: 5.3% close, $131/booking — lowest ROI goal.
Unemployed/Between Roles: $19/booking. Intent + budget both missing.
Less than $50k income: $57/booking — not commercial.

8. TRG Strategy Sessions Underperform

Strategy Session (standard) closes at 20.7% ($443/booking). TRG variant: 3.7% ($15/booking). If these are the same product with different traffic sources, the TRG source is generating very low-quality bookings. Investigate or cut.

Data Collection Fixes to Prioritize

9. Get Everyone to Answer the Readiness Question

Currently 54% response rate. Make it required or restructure the form flow. This is your highest-signal pre-call question.

10. You Need ~50 More Total Bookings

Overall close rate needs 216 bookings for ±5% MoE. You're at 172. About 44 more bookings will make your overall numbers statistically solid. Segment-level reliability requires 30–60 bookings per segment.